概述
本書在遵循國際上初步形成的“經濟決策定量方法”課程架構的前提下,結合我國高校教學的實際,通過大量
的實際案例,系統地介紹了“經濟決策定量方法”的基本原理、方法與過程。全書共分10章,即:第一章經濟決策定量方法綜述;第二章經濟預測分析;第三章存貯分析;第四章線性規劃分析;第五章運輸分析;第六章網路計畫分析;第七章經濟決策分析;第八章博弈與對策分析;第九章動態規劃分析;第十章隨機過程分析。內容提要
“經濟決策定量方法”是一門新興的經濟管理核心課程,是橫跨經濟預測與決策、系統規劃與最佳化、計量經濟等領域的邊緣性交又課程。本書篇幅在30萬字左右,剪裁合理,詳略得當,難易適中,較好地適應了我國高等院校教學的需要;採用大量實際案例,對知識的論述強調經濟內涵,把數學的套用保持在中等水平上;全英文編寫適應全球化人才培養的要求。
本書可作為普通高校經濟管理類專業本科生和研究生雙語教學或專業英語的教材,也可以作為企業全球化管理人才培訓的教材或自學參考書。
目錄
CHAPTER1INTRODUCTIONTOQUANTITATIVEMETHODSFORDECISIONMAKING
1.1QuantitativeMethods:AContinuingStoryofSuccess
1.2ManagementScienceandOperationsResearch
1.3TheImportanceofStudyingQuantitativeMethods
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CHAPTER2FORECASTING
2.1ForecastingUsingPastData:Time-seriesAnalysis
2.2ExponentialSmoothing
2.3ForecastingTrendUsingRegression
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CHAPTER3INVENTORYMODELS
3.1Introduction
3.2TheEconomicOrderQuantity(EOQ)Model
3.3OptimalInventoryPolicywithBackordering
3.4EconomicProductionLot-sizeModel
3.5Single-periodInventoryDecisionswithUncertainFactors
3.6Multi-periodInventoryPolicieswithUncertainFactors
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CHAPTER4LINEARPROGRAMMING
4.1Introduction
4.2FormulationofLinearProgrammingModels
4.3GraphicalSolutionofLinearPrograms
4.4LinearPrograminStandardForm
4.5SimplexMethod
4.6UseofArtificialVariables
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CHAPTER5TRANSPORTATIONPROBLEMS
5.1AShipment-SchedulingCase
5.2GettingStarted:TheNorthwestComerRuler
5.3GettingStarted:TheLeastCostRuler
5.4GettingStarted:TheVogel'sApproximationRuler
5.5SolvingtheProblem:TheSimplexAnalogy
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CHAPTER6PROJECTPLANNINGWITHPERT
6.1TheBasicConceptsofPERT
6.2AnAnalysisofthePERTNetwork
6.3PlanningandControlUsingthePERTNetwork
6.4Time-CostTrade-OffEvaluationswithPERT
6.5ProbabilisticPERTAnalysiswithThreeTimeEstimates
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CHAPTER7DECISIONMAKING
7.1TheCertaintyandUncertaintyinDecisionMaking
7.2TheElementsofDecisions
7.3TheBayesDecisionRule
7.4TheDecisionTreeAnalysis
7.5DecisionMakingUsingExperimentalInformation
7.6DecisionMakingUsingNormalDistribution
7.7DecisionMakingwithUtility
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CHAPTER8GAMESINTERACTIVEDECISIONS
8.1GameTheory
8.2MajorGameTypesandTheirSolutions
8.3SomePropertiesofZero-SumGames
8.4MixedStrategiesinGameswithnoEquilibriumActPair
8.5MixedStrategiesinLargerGames
8.6AdditionalRemarks
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CHAPTER9DYNAMICPROGRAMMING
9.1TheStagecoachProblem
9.2TypesofDynamicPrograms
9.3TheKnapsackProblem
9.4MaximizingSystemReliability
9.5OptimizingMulti-periodInventoriesandProduction
9.6ProbabilisticDynamicProgramming
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CHAPTER10RANDOMPROCESSES
10.1DiscreteTimeProcesses
10.2ContinuousTimeProcesses
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參考文獻
教學大綱