個人簡況
研究領域和研究方向：
主要研究領域為生態系統生態學、全球變化生態學和農林氣象學。長期從事區域生態/農業過程對人類活動和全球變化回響的機理、遙感監測、模型模擬和預測研究；季節氣候變化、農業旱澇災害和糧食生產安全預警系統研究；長期氣候變化、氣象極端事件及其對自然和農業生態系統的影響評價預測和適應對策研究；氣候變化和土地利用變化對農業水資源、農業生產和糧食安全的風險機率預測研究；氣候變化的影響閾值及適應對策研究。
近期科研進展：
近年來，主持和參加科技部“973”項目、中科院“百人計畫”項目、中國科學院戰略性先導科技專項、國家基金委面上項目等。收集整理多源資料，建立了農業多要素多尺度長期歷史資料庫，發展了系列先進的理論方法和模型系統，在我國農業耕作系統、農業水資源和農業生產對季節、年間氣候變率和長期氣候變化回響的事實、機制、規律及預測研究方面有多項創新成果。針對困擾當前氣候變化影響預測研究中的不確定性問題，發展了MCWLA系列作物模型和超集合機率預測的理論方法，研發了新一代氣候變化影響評價工具“區域農業對氣候變化回響的超集合預測系統”，
率先開展了氣候變化影響的機率評價和預測研究。在大尺度作物模型的發展和氣候變化影響評價研究的不確定問題上取得重要突破。研究論文被Nature, PNAS等國際知名期刊和IPCC等國際重要報告廣泛引用和高度評價。
代表論著：
Tao Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2011. Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change in China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 371-393, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1314.1
Tao, Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2011. Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China. Climatic Change, 105,409-432.
Tao Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change in China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: G03003, doi:10.1029/2009JG001062.
Tao Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2010. Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of agronomy, 33, 103-116.
Tao, Fulu, Z. Zhang, J. Liu. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1266–127.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831–850.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2009. Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Climatic Change, 93, 433–445.
Tao, Fulu, Y. HAYASHI, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use in China: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94–110.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale in China and the impacts of recent climate trend. Climate Research, 38, 83–94.
Tao, Fulu, Yokozawa, M., Zhang, Z., Hayashi, Y., Ishigooka, Y. 2008. Land surface phenology dynamics and climate variation in the North East China Transect (NECT), 1982–2000. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 29, 5461–5478.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Xu, Y. Hayashi, Z. Zhang. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 138, 82–92.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, Y. Xu, Y. Hayashi. 2005. Remote Sensing of Crop Production in China by Production Efficiency Models: Models Comparisons, Estimates and Uncertainties. Ecological Modelling, 183, 385–396.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2005. A Perspective on Water Resources in China: Interactions between Climate Change and Soil Degradation. Climatic Change, 68, 169–197.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, Y. Hayashi, H. Grassl, C. Fu. 2004. Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with East Asia monsoon and EL NIÑO southern oscillation. Climate Research, 28: 23–30.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2003. Changes in soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118, 251–261.
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2003. Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China. Agricultural Ecosystem & Environment, 95, 203─215.
Tao, Fulu, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2002. Soil vulnerability and sensitivity to acid deposition in China. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 140, 247─260.
Tao, Fulu, Z. Feng. 2001. Critical Loads of acid deposition for ecosystems in South China ─ Derived by a new method. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 130, 1187─1192.
Tao, Fulu, Z. Feng. 2000. Critical Loads of SO2 dry deposition for ecosystems in South China and theirs exceedance. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 124, 429─ 438.
Tao, Fulu, Z. Feng. 2000. Terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity to acid deposition in South China. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 118, 231─243.
