內容提要
此經典著作的第二版不僅僅是修訂，更是重寫：提煉了原著中格雷厄姆·阿利森任美國助理國防部長及哈佛大學甘迺迪政府學院院長時期的一些評論和觀點。同時也有一位新的作者菲利普·澤利科參與了第二版的撰寫，他著有十分暢銷的評論著作《甘迺迪錄音帶》(TheKennedyTapes，HarvardUniversityPress，1997)。
編輯推薦
不愧為全面、有深度、新穎的著作。
——迪亞娜·沃恩（DianeVaughan），波士頓大學
優於經典、高於原創的著作。
——理察·貝茨（RichardK.Betts），哥倫比亞大學
修訂版加強了在理論和歷史方面的內容，顯求了卓越成效！
——斯 科特·薩根（ScottSagan），史丹福大學
作者簡介
格雷厄姆·阿利森（GrahamT.Allison），哈佛大學甘迺迪政府學院院長、教授，曾在柯林頓政府時期任助理國防部長。
目錄
Preface
Introduction
1 ModelI:TheRationalActor
ARigorousModelofAction
ARationalActorParadigm
TheClassicalModelIllustrated
ClassicalRealism.Neorealism(StructuralRealism).
InternationalInstitutionalism.Liberalism.Strategy,War,
andRationalChoice.
VariantsandUsesoftheClassicalModel
2TheCubanMissileCrisis:AFirstCut
WhyDidtheSovietUnionDecidetoPlaceOffensiveMissilesin
Cuba?
Hypothesis1:CubanDefense.Hypothesis2:ColdWarPolitics.
Hypothesis3:MissilePower.Hypothesis4:Berlin--Win,
Trade,orTrap.
WhyDidtheUnitedStatesRespondtotheMissileDeployment
withaBlockade?
AlternativeI:DoNothing.Alternative2:Diplomatic
Pressures.Alternative3:ASecretApproachtoCastro.
Alternative4:Invasion.Alternative5:AirStrike.
Alternative6:Blockade.
WhyDidtheSovietUnionWithdrawtheMissiles?
3 ModelII:OrganizationalBehavior
OrganizationalLogicandEfficiency
OrganizationalLogicandOrganizationalCulture
InteractiveComplexity
NASA:HeroandGoat
OrganizationalBehaviorParadigm
4TheCubanMissileCrisis:ASecondCut
DeploymentofSovietMissilesinCuba
TheSovietBuild-upinDetail.Organizational
Implementation.
ImpositionofaU.S.BlockadeofCuba
OrganizationalIntelligence.OrganizationalOptions.
OrganizationalImplementation.
TheWithdrawalofSovietMissilesfromCuba
5ModelIII:GovernmentalPolitics
TheGovernmentalPoliticsModelIllustrated__
1.SeparatedInstitutionsSharingPower.2.ThePowerto
Persuade.3.BargainingAccordingtotheProcesses.4.Power
EqualsImpactonOutcome.5.Intranationaland
InternationalRelations.
GroupProcessesandTheirEffectsonChoicesandAction
1.BetterDecisions.2.The"Agency"Problem:Principals,
Agents,andPlayers.3.Participants:WhoPlays?4.Decision
Rules.5.FramingIssuesandSettingAgendas.6.Groupthink.
7.Complexityof]ointAction.
AGovernmentalPoliticsParadigm
6TheCubanMissileCrisis:AThirdCut
TheImpositionofaBlockadebytheUnitedStates
ThePoliticsofDiscovery.ThePoliticsofChoice.
SovietWithdrawaloftheMissilesfromCuba
SovietsKillanAmericanU-2Pilot.ThePresidentandthe
Chairman.The"Deal":ResolvingtheTurkishProblem.
The"Deal":ResolvingtheCubanProblem.
7Conclusion
SummingUp:DifferencesinInterpretation
SummingUp:DifferentAnswersorDifferentQuestions?
WhereDoWeGofromHere?
Index
